Hi all. The third of our three featured areas in our upcoming report to the CSIA regarding nanotechnology. Here are excerpts, and the entire section is here on the wiki.
Are you comfortable with what we are telling government? Yesterday’s presentation on Convergence got exactly 1 comment. Is it that non-controversial? Here we are telling government ‘don’t worry about grey goo or evil artificial intelligence.’ Is that okay with you?
Nanotechnology
The subject is discussed in more detail here: http://www.blindside.org.uk/wiki/Nano-
The Royal Society uses this definition of nanotechnology: “Nanotechnologies are the design, characterization, production and application of structures, devices and systems by controlling shape and size at nanometer scale.”
Longer term, (and it must be emphasized this list is at the conservative end of possible applications), the Institute forecasts use of nanotechnology in the following ways:
• Miniaturised data storage systems with capacities comparable to whole libraries’ stocks
• PCs with the power of today’s computer centres
• Chips that contain movies with more than 1,000 hours of playing time
• Replacements for human tissues and organs
• Cheap hydrogen storage possibilities for a regenerative energy economy
• Lightweight plastic windows with hard transparent protective layers
Detailing possible applications moves very quickly into a realm that seems like science fiction. But other nanotechnology enthusiasts foresee the enabling of quantum computing, artificial intelligence and a complete re-ordering of economies and political systems. Currently in the U.S. there are 450 consumer products using nanotechnology approved by the EPA and 600 nano-based materials licensed for use in manufacturing products. The number of products and services used in industry is not known, but believed to exceed 1,000. Lux Research, a consultancy specializing in nanotechnology, estimates that, worldwide, nanotechnology was incorporated in $30 billion (USD) of manufactured goods in 2005, which more than doubled the amount in the previous year. It estimates that by 2014 the figure will be $2.6 trillion, a more-than-85-fold increase (Lux Research 2006, p. iii).
There are respected scientists, technologists and philosophers that fear nanotechnology, including Bill Joy, a former senior executive at Sun MicroSystems, who wrote the article ‘Why the Future Doesn’t Need Us’ for Wired magazine two years ago.
Key Findings
• The impact on information assurance issues may be dramatic, involving a redefinition of information, cryptography, memory (both human and computer) and system. If a young person wearing a tongue stud can carry in it the contents of the British Library, what physical security measures can prevent data theft? If nanotechnology enables neural networking and computer enhancement of human memory, what are the implications for identity management, or indeed for identity itself?
• Nanotechnology receives a lot of attention in the media, with a search on Google returning 1,846 newspaper articles and magazine stories for one day in June 2007. Because of the potential impact and because of its treatment in books and films, take-up of nanotechnology has the potential to be as controversial as genetically modified organisms, if not more so.
• Nanotechnology is essentially a cross-disciplinary enabler that will impact healthcare, manufacturing, information systems, transportation, computer science and micro-electro- mechanical devices (MEMS) and probably much more. Advances in the use of nanotechnology in one field will often be of immediate relevance to its use in other fields. Progress in nanotechnology is rapid, and is expected to increase. Patent filings have increased 40% annually for over a decade.
• Nanotechnology has the potential to be disruptive as well as beneficial. In addition to substituting current manufacturing and agricultural processes that employ large numbers of people, some speculative thinkers envisage what they call the Singularity, where nanotechnology enables artificial intelligence that can be tasked with self-improvement, which would happen extremely quickly. This will not happen soon, if at all. Should it actually occur, it would have a very high impact on society, and would probably render information assurance useless or redundant. Blindside covers this in a special topic called Rampancy: AI Gone Wrong, found at http://www.blindside.org.uk/wiki/Rampancy:_AI_gone_wrong.
Citizen Centric
Some of the questions citizens will be asking are already being posed by advocacy groups in the UK :
• Is nanotechnology safe?
• Will ‘grey goo’ (self-replicating nano-robots, or ‘nanobots’) destroy the world?
• Will the benefits of nanotechnology be available to all?
• Why isn’t government regulating this more?
• Why is government regulating this at all?
Implications for UK Government
Because nanotechnology is most frequently seen in healthcare and materials coating, the current interest in nanotechnology revolves around toxicity and tolerance.
The Royal Society of Chemistry wrote in 2003 that “The potential health, safety and environmental impacts of nanotechnology are comparable to the impact of the existing chemical, electronics and biotechnology industries and the potential hazards should be judged in the same way. Our understanding is that current legislation should be sufficient to control the risks from nanoparticles, however research into their potential toxicity should be funded, as it may differ from that of larger particles with respect to respiratory and genetic damage. Until we develop ‘self replicating machines’- artificial life, there are no issues of substance not covered by existing regulatory practices. The ethical and social issues raised are also not unique to nanotechnology and are comparable to issues raised by many existing technologies, such as the differential access to costly technology in the developed and developing worlds and issues of privacy and security. “ (Nanotechnology – The issues, The Royal Society of Chemistry, July 2003). We concur with the RSC recommendation and see nothing that has happened since 2003 that requires rethinking of current legislation.
However, it may serve government well to begin planning for the disruptive economic effects of nanotechnology used in manufacturing, agriculture and healthcare. Indeed, there may be political and social ramifications resulting from nanotechnology.
Lastly, regarding the possibility of the creation of self-replicating artificial intelligence, even the most enthusiastic proponents of ‘The Singularity,’ as it is known, do not see it happening before 2045. Government bodies can afford to take a ‘wait and see’ approach for now.