When people write or speak of network capacity constraints, it’s important to remember that, while Internet traffic increased 57% in 2006, network capacity increased 64%.

Nonetheless, when people write or speak about network capacity constraints, this is why: “In the less than four years since its launch, Comcast On Demand is outpacing Apple’s iTunes on about a 2-to-1 basis in about the same timeframe, the cable TV operator claimed. iTunes has recorded three billion music downloads to date, and averages about 58 downloads a second, according to Comcast.” Note that Comcast pipes VOD down their cable channel, which doesn’t affect traffic. But iTunes does. They’re just one provider…

According to Comscore, Americans downloaded 9 billion videos in September. According to this story, China has more broadband users than the U.S. of A.

Considering that most commercial ISP traffic is peer to peer (up to 80%, by some reports), we just have to hope that network builders… keep building. Sadly, there will be legal and technical distractions coming their way, which may take their eye off the ball. Fighting malware, responding to worries about industrial espionage, police ICT forensic investigations, the political fight over prioritized traffic… I’m a bit concerned about capacity.